Introductory Bayesian problems

In­tro­duc­tory prob­lems:

  1. Diseasitis

  2. Sock-dresser search

  3. Spark­ing widgets

  4. Blue oysters

(Hover or click to read them.)

Children:

  • Diseasitis

    20% of pa­tients have Dise­a­sitis. 90% of sick pa­tients and 30% of healthy pa­tients turn a tongue de­pres­sor black. You turn a tongue de­pres­sor black. What’s the chance you have Dise­a­sitis?

  • Blue oysters

    A prob­a­bil­ity prob­lem about blue oys­ters.

  • Sparking widgets
  • Sock-dresser search

    There’s a 45 chance your socks are in one of your dresser’s 8 draw­ers. You check 6 draw­ers at ran­dom. What’s the prob­a­bil­ity they’ll be in the next drawer you check?

Parents: