# Introductory Bayesian problems

In­tro­duc­tory prob­lems:

(Hover or click to read them.)

Children:

• Diseasitis

20% of pa­tients have Dise­a­sitis. 90% of sick pa­tients and 30% of healthy pa­tients turn a tongue de­pres­sor black. You turn a tongue de­pres­sor black. What’s the chance you have Dise­a­sitis?

• Blue oysters

A prob­a­bil­ity prob­lem about blue oys­ters.

• Sparking widgets
• Sock-dresser search

There’s a 45 chance your socks are in one of your dresser’s 8 draw­ers. You check 6 draw­ers at ran­dom. What’s the prob­a­bil­ity they’ll be in the next drawer you check?

Parents:

• Maybe this should just be a link to https://​​ar­bital.com/​​p/​​1td/​​, with a “hover to get the an­swer” ? It’s not clear for me why it isn’t so, if it means the reader is ex­pected to always read the full linked ex­pla­na­tions, or if he’s ex­pected to just look up the an­swer.

• It’s not clear to me why the con­cept of log odds is needed to an­swer this prob­lem. Or rather I feel that it isn’t, and that a much sim­pler ex­pla­na­tion could be given, and that the con­cept of log odds is shoe­horned in.