# Introductory Bayesian problems

Introductory problems:

(Hover or click to read them.)

Children:

• Diseasitis

20% of patients have Diseasitis. 90% of sick patients and 30% of healthy patients turn a tongue depressor black. You turn a tongue depressor black. What’s the chance you have Diseasitis?

• Blue oysters

A probability problem about blue oysters.

• Sparking widgets
• Sock-dresser search

There’s a 45 chance your socks are in one of your dresser’s 8 drawers. You check 6 drawers at random. What’s the probability they’ll be in the next drawer you check?

Parents:

• Maybe this should just be a link to https://​​arbital.com/​​p/​​1td/​​, with a “hover to get the answer” ? It’s not clear for me why it isn’t so, if it means the reader is expected to always read the full linked explanations, or if he’s expected to just look up the answer.

• It’s not clear to me why the concept of log odds is needed to answer this problem. Or rather I feel that it isn’t, and that a much simpler explanation could be given, and that the concept of log odds is shoehorned in.