Well-calibrated probabilities

A sys­tem of prob­a­bil­ity as­sign­ments is “well-cal­ibrated” if things to which it as­signs 70% prob­a­bil­ity, hap­pen around 70% of the time. This is the goal to which bounded ra­tio­nal­ists as­pire—not to perfectly pre­dict ev­ery­thing, but to be no more or less cer­tain than our in­for­ma­tion war­rants.


  • Probability theory

    The logic of sci­ence; co­her­ence re­la­tions on quan­ti­ta­tive de­grees of be­lief.