Predictions For 2017

Scott Alexan­der made 105 pre­dic­tions for 2017. Most of them are not per­sonal and are listed be­low. Want to see how your pre­dic­tions will com­pare to his? Think you can do bet­ter? Go ahead and vote. Ar­bital will send you a fol­low up email at the end of the year to tell you how you did.

World events

  1. In 2017, US will not get in­volved in any new ma­jor war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers

  2. In 2017, North Korea’s gov­ern­ment will sur­vive the year with­out large civil war/​revolt

  3. In 2017, no ter­ror­ist at­tack in the USA will kill > 100 people

  4. In 2017, no ter­ror­ist at­tack in any First World coun­try will kill > 100 people

  5. In 2017, As­sad will re­main Pres­i­dent of Syria

  6. In 2017, Is­rael will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Is­raeli deaths) with any Arab state

  7. In 2017 there will be no ma­jor in­tifada in Is­rael (ie > 250 Is­raeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war)

  8. 2017 will have no in­ter­est­ing progress with Gaza or peace ne­go­ti­a­tions in general

  9. There will be no Cast Lead style bomb­ing/​in­va­sion of Gaza in 2017

  10. Si­tu­a­tion in Is­rael will look more worse than bet­ter by end of 2017

  11. Syria’s civil war will not end in 2017

  12. By end of 2017 ISIS will con­trol less ter­ri­tory than it did at the be­gin­ning of the year

  13. ISIS will not con­tinue to ex­ist as a state en­tity in Iraq/​Syria by end of 2017

  14. In 2017, there will be no ma­jor civil war in Mid­dle Eastern coun­try not already ex­pe­rienc­ing a ma­jor civil war at the be­gin­ning of 2017

  15. Libya will re­main a mess in 2017

  16. In 2017, Ukraine will nei­ther break into all-out war or get neatly resolved

  17. 2017 will not have any ma­jor re­volt (greater than or equal to Ti­anan­men Square) against Chi­nese Com­mu­nist Party

  18. No ma­jor war in Asia (with >100 Chi­nese, Ja­panese, South Korean, and Amer­i­can deaths com­bined) over “tiny stupid is­lands” in 2017

  19. No ex­change of fire over “tiny stupid is­lands” in 2017

  20. There will be no an­nounce­ment of ge­net­i­cally en­g­ineered hu­man baby or cred­ible plan for such in 2017

  21. In 2017, EMDrive is launched into space and test­ing is suc­cess­fully begun

  22. In 2017, a sig­nifi­cant num­ber of skep­tics will not be­come con­vinced EMDrive works

  23. In 2017, a sig­nifi­cant num­ber of be­liev­ers will not be­come con­vinced EMDrive doesn’t work

  24. No ma­jor earth­quake (>100 deaths) in US in 2017

  25. No ma­jor earth­quake (>10,000 deaths) in the world in 2017

  26. Keith Elli­son will be cho­sen as new DNC chair in 2017

Europe

  1. No coun­try cur­rently in Euro or EU will an­nounce new plan to leave in 2017

  2. France will not de­clare a plan to leave EU in 2017

  3. Ger­many will not de­clare a plan to leave EU

  4. No agree­ment will be reached on “two-speed EU”

  5. The UK will trig­ger Ar­ti­cle 50 in 2017

  6. Marine Le Pen will not be elected Pres­i­dent of France in 2017

  7. An­gela Merkel will be re-elected Chan­cel­lor of Ger­many in 2017

  8. Theresa May will re­main PM of Bri­tain in 2017

  9. Fewer re­fugees ad­mit­ted by Europe in 2017 than 2016

Economics

  1. Bit­coin will end 2017 higher than $1000

  2. Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel

  3. Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel

  4. Dow Jones will not end 2017 down by more than 10%

  5. Shang­hai in­dex will not end 2017 down by more than 10%

Trump administration

  1. Don­ald Trump re­mains Pres­i­dent at the end of 2017

  2. No se­ri­ous im­peach­ment pro­ceed­ings are ac­tive against Trump in 2017

  3. In 2017, con­struc­tion on Mex­i­can bor­der wall (be­yond ex­ist­ing bar­ri­ers) begins

  4. In 2017, Trump ad­minis­tra­tion will not ini­ti­ate ex­tra pros­e­cu­tion of Hillary Clinton

  5. 2017 US GDP growth will be lower than in 2016

  6. US un­em­ploy­ment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning

  7. In 2017, US does not with­draw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA

  8. In 2017, US does not pub­li­cly and ex­plic­itly dis­avow One China policy

  9. There will be no race riot kil­ling > 5 peo­ple in 2017

  10. In 2017, US lifts at least half of ex­ist­ing sanc­tions on Russia

  11. Don­ald Trump’s ap­proval rat­ing at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent

  12. Don­ald Trump’s ap­proval rat­ing at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent

Communities

  1. SSC will re­main ac­tive by end of 2017

  2. In 2017 SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016

  3. In 2017 at least one SSC post will have more than 100,000 hits

… skip­ping a few overly in­di­vi­d­ual pre­dic­tions…

  1. Less Wrong re­nais­sance at­tempt will seem less (rather than more) suc­cess­ful by end of 2017

  2. SlateS­tarCodex will have more than 15,000 Twit­ter fol­low­ers by end of 2017

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