Predictions For 2017

Scott Alexander made 105 predictions for 2017. Most of them are not personal and are listed below. Want to see how your predictions will compare to his? Think you can do better? Go ahead and vote. Arbital will send you a follow up email at the end of the year to tell you how you did.

World events

In 2017, US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers
In 2017, North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt
In 2017, no terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people
In 2017, no terrorist attack in any First World country will kill > 100 people
In 2017, Assad will remain President of Syria
In 2017, Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state
In 2017 there will be no major intifada in Israel (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war)
2017 will have no interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general
There will be no Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017
Situation in Israel will look more worse than better by end of 2017
Syria’s civil war will not end in 2017
By end of 2017 ISIS will control less territory than it did at the beginning of the year
ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by end of 2017
In 2017, there will be no major civil war in Middle Eastern country not already experiencing a major civil war at the beginning of 2017
Libya will remain a mess in 2017
In 2017, Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved
2017 will not have any major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party
No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over “tiny stupid islands” in 2017
No exchange of fire over “tiny stupid islands” in 2017
There will be no announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such in 2017
In 2017, EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun
In 2017, a significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works
In 2017, a significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work
No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2017
No major earthquake (>10,000 deaths) in the world in 2017
Keith Ellison will be chosen as new DNC chair in 2017

Europe

No country currently in Euro or EU will announce new plan to leave in 2017
France will not declare a plan to leave EU in 2017
Germany will not declare a plan to leave EU
No agreement will be reached on “two-speed EU”
The UK will trigger Article 50 in 2017
Marine Le Pen will not be elected President of France in 2017
Angela Merkel will be re-elected Chancellor of Germany in 2017
Theresa May will remain PM of Britain in 2017
Fewer refugees admitted by Europe in 2017 than 2016

Economics

Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000
Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel
Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel
Dow Jones will not end 2017 down by more than 10%
Shanghai index will not end 2017 down by more than 10%

Trump administration

Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017
No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump in 2017
In 2017, construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins
In 2017, Trump administration will not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton
2017 US GDP growth will be lower than in 2016
US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning
In 2017, US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA
In 2017, US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy
There will be no race riot killing > 5 people in 2017
In 2017, US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia
Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent
Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent

Communities

SSC will remain active by end of 2017
In 2017 SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016
In 2017 at least one SSC post will have more than 100,000 hits

… skipping a few overly individual predictions…

Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017
SlateStarCodex will have more than 15,000 Twitter followers by end of 2017